trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +1.3% | -8.4% | 100% | 0% | -8.4% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -2.6% | -11.8% | 14% | 0% | -12.6% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -2.6% | -11.8% | 14% | 0% | -12.6% |
| all | 28 | -4.5% | -13.6% | 43% | 4% | -11.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.6% | 4% | -11.8% |
| 10% | -21.9% | 4% | -20.3% |
| 15% | -29.4% | 0% | -28.0% |
| 20% | -36.3% | 0% | -35.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 90¢ | 90¢ | $26 | $26 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $24 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $67 | −$11 | -17% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 07 | $106 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 06 | $40 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 04 | $41 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 03 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 03 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 16 | $3 | −$1 | -39% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 01 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election | Jun 22 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? | Jun 14 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Oracle buy TikTok? | Jun 13 | $10 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13? | Jun 09 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and | Jun 09 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? | Jun 06 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? | Jun 06 | $13 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 | Jun 05 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Starmer out before July? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +32% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? | Jun 02 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend? | May 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th | May 07 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? | May 06 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 06 | $15 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? | Mar 28 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? | Mar 28 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? | Mar 27 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Norfolk State vs. Florida | Mar 23 | $15 | $0 | +1% |