Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d1e…68a3 world 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$10
other 10% +$26
politics 7% +$5
sports 6% $0
culture 2% +$2
crypto 2% +$1
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 16 +43.9% +30.2% 50% 12% -10.4%
≤90d 17 +41.4% +28.0% 53% 12% -10.2%
all 37 +29.4% +17.1% 57% 11% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.1% 11% -8.3%
10% +5.9% 11% -17.1%
15% -4.3% 8% -25.1%
20% -13.7% 8% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage318d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $85 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $102 −$2 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $209 +$5 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $102 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $109 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $107 −$5 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $187 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $77 +$3 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $91 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $5 +$3 +66%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $3 $0 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $116 −$16 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $25 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 19 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 17 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $1 +$5 +335%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $92 +$21 +24%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $83 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $54 +$5 +10%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $33 +$2 +7%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on August 7? Aug 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 06 $31 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 06 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $28 1m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $57 1m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $64 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $21 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 61¢ $20 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 61¢ $51 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 61¢ $29 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 62¢ $102 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $101 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $6 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $29 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $78 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $40 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $29 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $33 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $5 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $57 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $46 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $61 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $79 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $23 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 42h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records