Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d1d…01ac
other · 957 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,392 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,312 · open +$92
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19,023
Realized+$1,312
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses498 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions242
Markets (closed)719 / 957
History coverage40d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day68.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit45%
Chart Positions 242 History 719 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$379
14 days+$711
30 days+$1,343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $2,403 $2,464 +$61 (+3%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 77¢ 80¢ $1,190 $1,234 +$43 (+4%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? No 89¢ 96¢ $822 $885 +$63 (+8%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 98¢ 98¢ $663 $663 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $637 $646 +$9 (+1%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 96¢ 100¢ $613 $638 +$25 (+4%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $557 $556 −$0 (-0%)
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $433 $434 +$1 (+0%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 56¢ 99¢ $236 $415 +$180 (+76%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $368 $373 +$5 (+1%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 11¢ 42¢ $99 $369 +$270 (+272%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $342 $340 −$2 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Under 91¢ 96¢ $301 $318 +$17 (+6%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $294 $295 +$1 (+0%)
Curaçao leading at halftime? No 96¢ 97¢ $288 $291 +$2 (+1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 76¢ 81¢ $271 $289 +$18 (+7%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 68¢ 69¢ $258 $264 +$6 (+2%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $219 $258 +$39 (+18%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 95¢ 95¢ $231 $230 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 92¢ 92¢ $230 $228 −$2 (-1%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $219 $227 +$8 (+4%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 83¢ 86¢ $212 $220 +$7 (+3%)
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 81¢ $210 $217 +$7 (+3%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? No 89¢ 88¢ $210 $206 −$3 (-2%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $189 $204 +$15 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Mark Hubbard win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Paul Waring win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $27 −$15 -56%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $6 +$2 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $185 +$20 +11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $2 +$16 +919%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $44 −$32 -73%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $38 +$12 +31%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $12 +$1 +9%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America Lea Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Outlast (BO1) - North America L Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $98 +$3 +3%
César Huerta: 2+ goals Jun 11 $36 +$1 +4%
Alexis Vega: 1+ goals Jun 11 $13 +$3 +24%
Roberto Alvarado: 2+ goals Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Álvaro Fidalgo: 2+ goals Jun 11 $62 +$3 +4%
South Africa to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +31%
Alexis Vega: 2+ goals Jun 11 $29 +$1 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Iqraam Rayners: 2+ goals Jun 11 $143 +$5 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $23 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $92 −$22 -24%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $24 +$27 +109%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America L Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$487
politics 23% +$574
sports 14% +$393
culture 12% +$1
world 2% −$44
economics 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joel Dahmen finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 98¢ $49 6m
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY No 92¢ $46 17m
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY No 91¢ $7 31m
Will Jordan L. Smith finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY No 98¢ $26 39m
Will Alexander Noren finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope BUY No 98¢ $19 41m
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY Yes 98¢ $20 45m
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY Yes 98¢ $30 46m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 92¢ $11 50m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 92¢ $77 52m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 92¢ $92 52m
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 86¢ $35 55m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 89¢ $21 56m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 89¢ $7 57m
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 85¢ $13 58m
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
Will Steven Fisk finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 98¢ $12 1h
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $69 1h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY Yes 98¢ $20 1h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY Yes 98¢ $20 1h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY Yes 98¢ $39 1h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY Yes 98¢ $38 1h
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY Yes 98¢ $20 1h
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 98¢ $83 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 87¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 87¢ $17 1h
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 86¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 86¢ $8 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 201 -13.7% -21.9% 63% 18% -14.1%
≤30d 680 -0.1% -9.6% 71% 16% -6.6%
≤90d 719 -2.2% -11.5% 69% 16% -6.8%
all 719 -2.2% -11.5% 69% 16% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover68.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 16% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 10% -15.7%
15% -27.7% 7% -23.8%
20% -34.8% 5% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,023.32 · official $19,023.65 (match) · 3500 history records