Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:58:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4D 0x4d1d…d8c0 sports 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,980 (-13%) realized −$3,842 · open −$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%135W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$270est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$28
14 days−$7
30 days−$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,362
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.5% -16.3% 55% 55% -6.9%
≤30d 34 -18.6% -26.4% 47% 47% -29.7%
≤90d 185 -6.6% -15.5% 52% 52% -15.7%
all 274 -12.6% -20.9% 49% 48% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 48% -21.8%
10% -28.5% 45% -29.3%
15% -35.4% 40% -36.1%
20% -41.7% 31% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$98 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,842
Unrealized−$138
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses135 / 139
Est. fees paid−$270
Open positions1
Markets (closed)274 / 275
History coverage181d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner MOUZ 57¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $143 +$96 +67%
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $100 −$99 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $49 +$52 +105%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Game Handicap: the bug (-1.5) vs GG Boom (+1.5) Jun 24 $85 +$76 +89%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $57 −$56 -98%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $123 +$76 +62%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $100 +$43 +44%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $36 −$36 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $275 −$106 -38%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $237 −$72 -30%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $13 −$13 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $81 −$81 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $10 +$3 +34%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $13 +$8 +66%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $8 +$5 +58%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $3 +$5 +188%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $2 +$1 +67%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $56 +$27 +49%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $61 +$69 +113%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $174 −$174 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $281 −$107 -38%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $152 +$79 +52%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $150 +$51 +34%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $47 +$13 +27%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $94 +$131 +139%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 24 $141 −$141 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner May 24 $77 −$77 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $25 +$10 +40%
1H Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $49 +$92 +188%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner May 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Dota 2: Team NS vs Stray Team - Game 1 Winner May 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 19 $142 −$142 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 19 $303 −$178 -59%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $223 +$176 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 70¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 39¢ $39 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $238 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 59¢ $143 2h
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner BUY the bug 8¢ $10 11h
Dota 2: GG Boom vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner BUY GG Boom 64¢ $100 13h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 48¢ $49 23h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 60¢ $101 23h
Game Handicap: the bug (-1.5) vs GG Boom (+1.5) SELL the bug 100¢ $161 36h
Game Handicap: the bug (-1.5) vs GG Boom (+1.5) BUY the bug 52¢ $85 39h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 45¢ $57 44h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 46¢ $102 45h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $151 45h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 66¢ $101 47h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $200 47h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 58¢ $59 2d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 64¢ $65 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 69¢ $100 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $36 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY paiN 62¢ $107 16d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 38¢ $107 16d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 58¢ $168 16d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 99¢ $168 16d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 47¢ $81 16d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner SELL paiN 45¢ $81 16d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY paiN 67¢ $156 16d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 46¢ $13 20d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner SELL GLYPH 100¢ $13 20d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner BUY GLYPH 74¢ $10 20d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 3 Winner BUY GLYPH 47¢ $11 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 636 history records