Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d1d…1ff3 weather 84 markets active 1d ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-4%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%47W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$1
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% $0
crypto 10% $0
world 7% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -0.8% -10.3% 51% 50% -14.5%
≤30d 77 +2.7% -7.1% 53% 52% -17.1%
≤90d 84 +2.7% -7.1% 56% 51% -15.7%
all 84 +2.7% -7.1% 56% 51% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 51% -15.7%
10% -16.0% 51% -23.8%
15% -24.1% 45% -31.1%
20% -31.5% 32% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses47 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage33d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -29%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +47%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 92¢ $4 33h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 63¢ $3 36h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 55¢ $3 40h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 44¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $3 43h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 44h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 78¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 75¢ $3 2d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records