Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d1c…8408 sports 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,292 (-5%) realized −$989 · open −$303
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%140W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$293est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$647
7 days+$83
14 days+$340
30 days−$989
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$918
other 10% −$822
crypto 1% +$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -0.0% -9.5% 55% 54% -8.5%
≤30d 209 -9.2% -17.9% 51% 49% -13.8%
≤90d 280 -9.2% -17.8% 50% 48% -14.1%
all 280 -9.2% -17.8% 50% 48% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 48% -14.1%
10% -25.7% 46% -22.3%
15% -32.9% 43% -29.8%
20% -39.5% 36% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$78 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$989
Unrealized−$303
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses140 / 140
Est. fees paid−$293
Open positions3
Markets (closed)280 / 283
History coverage63d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime? No 45¢ 8¢ $161 $27 −$134 (-83%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 50¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $122 +$97 +79%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $95 +$96 +101%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $116 −$114 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $129 +$56 +44%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 +$100 +197%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $96 +$93 +97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $68 +$96 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $125 −$124 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $89 −$88 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $96 −$95 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $176 +$206 +117%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $151 +$94 +62%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $122 +$89 +73%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $170 +$64 +38%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $117 −$116 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $119 +$95 +79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $103 +$98 +95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $174 −$172 -99%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $65 −$64 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $130 −$128 -99%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $149 −$147 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $71 +$92 +129%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $144 −$143 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $116 +$56 +48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $126 +$96 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 +$94 +89%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $129 −$127 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $301 +$18 +6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $140 +$95 +68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $120 −$119 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $66 −$63 -95%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $54 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $82 +$60 +73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $68 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$6 +64%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $22 +$4 +20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $94 +$51 +54%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $97 +$55 +57%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $117 −$115 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $75 −$74 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $67 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $168 −$165 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $82 −$81 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $89 +$101 +114%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $147 +$100 +68%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $53 −$52 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 45¢ $80 51m
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 45¢ $1 58m
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 46¢ $82 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $61 4h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ $122 4h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 50¢ $111 8h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 49¢ $2 8h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 49¢ $93 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $2 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $56 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $58 16h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 33¢ $50 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY No 69¢ $129 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 55¢ $125 21h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $68 23h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $96 24h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $89 24h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 48¢ $2 26h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 50¢ $95 26h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 44¢ $80 29h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 45¢ $2 29h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 47¢ $94 29h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 62¢ $3 29h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 61¢ $149 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $117 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $122 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $170 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $174 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.78 · official $26.78 (match) · 493 history records