Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d1c…3d67 crypto 306 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$272 (-3%) realized −$272 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%100W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$66
14 days−$81
30 days−$456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$347
sports 15% −$18
other 4% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -18.1% -25.9% 23% 21% -14.8%
≤30d 185 -15.0% -23.1% 29% 24% -17.7%
≤90d 296 -8.8% -17.5% 32% 26% -15.0%
all 306 -7.1% -15.9% 33% 26% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 26% -14.3%
10% -24.0% 21% -22.5%
15% -31.3% 17% -30.0%
20% -38.0% 14% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses100 / 206
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)306 / 306
History coverage130d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 306 Trades
no open positions (83 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$5 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$7 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $81 −$37 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$15 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $76 −$18 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$16 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$52 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$53 +797%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$20 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$15 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $33 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $118 +$44 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $22 −$9 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $49 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $24 +$16 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $28 −$24 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $19 +$31 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$22 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $19 −$9 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $54 −$21 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$16 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $35 −$5 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $23 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $18 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $27 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $16 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $16 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $9 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1315 history records