Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:12:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d1b…1419 other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,206 (+3%) realized +$8,520 · open −$314
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate81%96W / 23L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$1,842per market
Trades / day43.1pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$13,853now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$400
7 days+$2,316
14 days+$4,004
30 days+$3,946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$4,148
other 25% +$4,627
politics 22% +$1,801
tech 7% +$1,434
economics 3% −$191
sports 2% +$657
finance 2% −$246
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.3% -14.3% 82% 18% +1.5%
≤30d 50 +50.2% +35.9% 82% 18% -4.4%
≤90d 119 +27.2% +15.0% 81% 20% -3.5%
all 119 +27.2% +15.0% 81% 20% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.0% 20% -3.5%
10% +4.0% 14% -12.7%
15% ← realistic here -6.0% 8% -21.2%
20% -15.2% 7% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$2,075) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$253 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$13,853
Realized+$8,520
Unrealized−$314
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses96 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions18
Markets (closed)119 / 137
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$1,842
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $4,160 $4,371 +$211 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $1,888 $1,984 +$96 (+5%)
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,625 $1,706 +$80 (+5%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $971 $1,060 +$90 (+9%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $963 $975 +$12 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $933 $952 +$19 (+2%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $737 $757 +$20 (+3%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 21¢ 14¢ $880 $598 −$282 (-32%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $377 $379 +$3 (+1%)
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $340 $345 +$4 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 42¢ $76 $170 +$94 (+124%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 91¢ 20¢ $683 $150 −$533 (-78%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 74¢ $74 $139 +$64 (+86%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 36¢ 15¢ $327 $136 −$191 (-58%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $119 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Yes $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 44¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 19 $860 +$45 +5%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 19 $471 +$29 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $858 +$73 +8%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $406 +$23 +6%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $1,680 −$570 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $15,542 +$1,989 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $362 +$9 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,659 +$792 +30%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 12 $235 −$86 -37%
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in June? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $4,445 +$163 +4%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $2,844 +$731 +26%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,754 +$137 +5%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $806 +$44 +5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $4,858 +$237 +5%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 09 $10,256 +$273 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $198 +$2 +1%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $4,147 +$94 +2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $1,065 +$9 +1%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar Jun 05 $70 +$8 +11%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 04 $90 +$4 +4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $134 +$4 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $1,674 +$239 +14%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $101 −$101 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,357 +$57 +4%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? May 28 $558 +$17 +3%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? May 28 $113 −$7 -7%
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in May? May 28 $305 +$23 +7%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $588 +$12 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27? May 26 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $188 +$5 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $194 +$6 +3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $493 +$7 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4,807 +$528 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $3,889 +$172 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $1,405 +$75 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $240 +$96 +40%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $1,858 −$1,433 -77%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $2,915 +$35 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $3,943 +$50 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $133 −$37 -28%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $198 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 21 $46 −$44 -97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $196 +$4 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? May 20 $10 +$421 +4210%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $6,206 +$106 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $340 +$12 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 40m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $4 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $4 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $3 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $2 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $10 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $10 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $2 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $0 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $4 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $5 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $6 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $4 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $18 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $36 1h
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? BUY No 98¢ $447 1h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF BUY Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $66 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $192 3h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA BUY Yes 95¢ $719 5h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA BUY Yes 95¢ $19 5h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA BUY Yes 95¢ $76 5h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World BUY Yes 95¢ $119 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,853.10 · official $13,852.91 (match) · 3500 history records