Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:14:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4D 0x4d1a…d142 crypto 1094 markets active 10h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%590W / 500L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$32
14 days−$82
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$28
other 10% −$98
sports 5% +$105
world 3% −$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 50% +50.9%
≤30d 12 +182.5% +155.6% 58% 50% -10.1%
≤90d 14 +149.0% +125.3% 50% 43% -13.2%
all 1090 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 43% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 43% -10.5%
10% -16.7% 42% -19.1%
15% -24.7% 42% -26.9%
20% -32.1% 41% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses590 / 500
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1090 / 1094
History coverage205d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1090 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 284 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 23 $21 +$1 +5%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $27 +$31 +114%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$12 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$20 +276%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$14 -35%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $26 −$6 -22%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $10 +$20 +195%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 02 $196 +$24 +12%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 01 $12 −$12 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $127 +$95 +75%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Apr 25 $129 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Dec 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 31 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Dec 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Dec 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 5AM ET Dec 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 31 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Dec 31 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 31 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Dec 31 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 6AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Dec 30 $2 +$3 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 30 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Korea Republic leading at h BUY 46¢ $11 10h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 82¢ $22 43h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 78¢ $21 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score AND Tunisia vs. Netherlan BUY 54¢ $41 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY 46¢ $27 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $9 2d
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $132 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $16 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 10d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 17d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 19d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 19d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes 10¢ $22 21d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 21d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 21d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 22d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 22d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22d
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY No 59¢ $1 24d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY No 59¢ $2 24d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY No 59¢ $9 24d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY No 89¢ $9 25d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY No 89¢ $9 25d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY No 89¢ $196 25d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.45 · official $51.45 · 2945 history records