Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d1a…d3ed crypto 31 markets active 7d ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+8%) realized +$7 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$6
other 5% −$2
culture 2% $0
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -50.9% -55.6% 29% 29% -32.5%
≤30d 28 -9.0% -17.7% 39% 39% -1.0%
≤90d 28 -9.0% -17.7% 39% 39% -1.0%
all 28 -9.0% -17.7% 39% 39% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 39% -1.0%
10% -25.6% 39% -10.5%
15% -32.8% 39% -19.1%
20% -39.4% 39% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage19d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$7 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$4 +374%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $1 13d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.82 · official $6.82 (match) · 59 history records