Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d16…fb11
weather · 407 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$47 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$47 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses314 / 81
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)395 / 407
History coverage86d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 12 History 395 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$7
14 days+$2
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 88¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? No 87¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? No 76¢ 73¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? No 78¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? No 75¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 87¢ 83¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? No 80¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? No 45¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? No 79¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? No 89¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 4? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 90% +$18
sports 7% +$28
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 45¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 46¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 78¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 85¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -2.2% -11.5% 78% 78% -15.9%
≤30d 243 +2.2% -7.5% 81% 80% -6.3%
≤90d 395 +2.0% -7.7% 79% 77% -6.0%
all 395 +2.0% -7.7% 79% 77% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 77% -6.0%
10% -16.6% 39% -15.0%
15% -24.6% 18% -23.2%
20% -32.0% 8% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.10 · official $24.10 (match) · 1135 history records