Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d16…7a11 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% $0
other 27% $0
politics 4% $0
finance 4% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -0.1% -9.7% 49% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage465d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $28 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $30 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $16 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $15 −$2 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $30 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island Apr 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 25 $9 $0 -5%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 24 $13 $0 +2%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 23 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 13 $13 $0 -3%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $28 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $28 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $28 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $31 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $30 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $1 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $25 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $27 23d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $28 23d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $28 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 49¢ $5 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 49¢ $10 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 50¢ $16 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $28 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 51¢ $13 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 59¢ $15 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $30 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $30 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $1 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records