Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d12…ae23 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$313 (+7%) realized +$313 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$60
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$281
crypto 22% +$58
other 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 40% +19.9%
≤30d 10 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 40% +19.9%
≤90d 10 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 40% +19.9%
all 21 -19.4% -27.0% 43% 38% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 38% +0.3%
10% -34.0% 33% -9.3%
15% -40.4% 29% -18.0%
20% -46.2% 29% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$32 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$313
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage229d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6 Feb 07 $761 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Feb 06 $382 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Suns Jan 09 $1,000 +$15 +2%
Pistons vs. Heat Nov 30 $170 −$160 -94%
Bulls vs. Pacers Nov 30 $208 +$112 +54%
Timberwolves vs. Suns Nov 22 $500 +$414 +83%
Raptors vs. Pacers Nov 16 $673 −$37 -6%
Thunder vs. Hornets Nov 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Nov 15 $30 −$8 -28%
Islanders vs. Golden Knights Nov 14 $217 +$66 +30%
Rachel Reeves out as Chancellor of the Exchequer by December 31? Nov 14 $11 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6 BUY No 100¢ $379 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6 SELL No 100¢ $379 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6 BUY No 100¢ $380 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6 BUY Yes 0¢ $2 143d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 156d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 156d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $380 156d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 156d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 156d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Suns 99¢ $1,000 175d
Pistons vs. Heat SELL Heat 1¢ $10 211d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 17¢ $8 211d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 17¢ $57 211d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 17¢ $1 211d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 17¢ $0 211d
Pistons vs. Heat BUY Heat 17¢ $0 211d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records