Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4D 0x4d0f…a2c6 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%13W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$28
politics 22% −$5
economics 4% −$1
sports 3% +$32
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 +4.5% -5.4% 13% 9% -9.5%
all 100 +4.5% -5.4% 13% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 9% -9.5%
10% -14.5% 9% -18.2%
15% -22.8% 8% -26.1%
20% -30.3% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses13 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage87d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $129 $129 −$0 (-0%)
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $237 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $330 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $372 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $377 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 13 $186 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $328 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $577 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $189 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $185 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $392 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $183 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $371 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $178 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $389 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $367 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $184 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $342 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $181 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $386 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $355 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $384 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $342 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 17h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $129 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 11d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $24 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $24 16d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 18d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 18d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 18d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 21d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $41 24d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $41 24d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $81 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.88 · official $166.88 (match) · 293 history records