Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:22:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d0e…05ed world 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$5
other 29% −$2
politics 12% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 11 -0.8% -10.2% 27% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 11 -0.8% -10.2% 27% 0% -8.1%
all 32 -2.9% -12.2% 31% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -8.8%
10% -20.6% 0% -17.6%
15% -28.2% 0% -25.5%
20% -35.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage453d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $36 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $37 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $56 +$5 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $1 $0 -16%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 27 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $13 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +3%
Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $36 8m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $36 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $7 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $33 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $11 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $22 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $33 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $36 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $35 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records