trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +15.8% | +4.8% | 100% | 100% | +4.8% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +30.4% | +17.9% | 100% | 100% | +7.2% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +30.4% | +17.9% | 100% | 100% | +7.2% |
| all | 21 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 71% | 67% | +3.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.5% | 67% | +3.6% |
| 10% | -20.9% | 52% | -6.3% |
| 15% | -28.5% | 24% | -15.3% |
| 20% | -35.5% | 0% | -23.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 83¢ | 92¢ | $230 | $255 | +$25 (+11%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 13¢ | 19¢ | $100 | $147 | +$47 (+47%) |
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Yes | 72¢ | 67¢ | $144 | $134 | −$11 (-7%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $100 | $87 | −$13 (-13%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 11¢ | $100 | $75 | −$25 (-25%) |
| Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 6¢ | $277 | $44 | −$234 (-84%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | $31 | $25 | −$6 (-18%) |
| Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 2¢ | $100 | $6 | −$94 (-94%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 25 | $200 | +$32 | +16% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jun 09 | $20 | +$9 | +45% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Mar 06 | $50 | −$9 | -18% |
| Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Mar 06 | $76 | +$27 | +35% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 03 | $60 | +$17 | +28% |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Jan 20 | $646 | +$30 | +5% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Jan 04 | $302 | +$53 | +18% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Jan 04 | $200 | +$91 | +45% |
| Rockets vs. Clippers | Dec 24 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Giants vs. Patriots | Dec 14 | $20 | +$6 | +30% |
| Suns vs. Lakers | Dec 01 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? | Dec 01 | $20 | +$9 | +43% |
| 76ers vs. Nets | Dec 01 | $20 | +$9 | +43% |
| Thunder vs. Jazz | Dec 01 | $26 | +$6 | +24% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 01 | $159 | +$44 | +28% |
| Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? | Nov 27 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | Nov 27 | $30 | +$12 | +39% |
| Devils vs. Capitals | Nov 22 | $20 | +$6 | +30% |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | Nov 16 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Knicks | Nov 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bulls vs. Pistons | Nov 16 | $20 | +$4 | +22% |