Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d0c…62f9 world 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$2
other 19% $0
sports 8% $0
weather 3% $0
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 9 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
all 21 +0.5% -9.0% 57% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage470d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $91 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $85 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $33 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $41 −$1 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $17 $0 -2%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 14h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $39 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $1 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $32 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $7 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $19 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $20 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $39 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $2 23d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $40 23d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $6 23d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $5 23d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $29 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $45 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $45 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $3 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.16 · official $44.16 (match) · 62 history records