Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:42:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d09…6699 crypto 253 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2957 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$815 (+1%) realized +$815 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate37%143W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day2957.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$226
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2957 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 389 -33.1% -39.4% 37% 1% -10.0%
≤30d 389 -33.1% -39.4% 37% 1% -10.0%
≤90d 389 -33.1% -39.4% 37% 1% -10.0%
all 389 -33.1% -39.4% 37% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2957.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.4% 1% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -45.2% 1% -18.6%
15% -50.5% 1% -26.4%
20% -55.4% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$815
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses143 / 246
Open positions0
Markets (closed)389 / 253
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$286
Trades / day2957.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 389 Trades
no open positions (146 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$150 -211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $126 −$153 -121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $77 −$147 -192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $32 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $32 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $33 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $160 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $55 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $29 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $51 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $61 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $39 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $52 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records