Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4D 0x4d07…ade2 crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$398 (+1%) realized +$287 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate70%43W / 18L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$298
7 days+$298
14 days+$298
30 days+$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$519
sports 7% +$110
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +25.1% +13.2% 50% 50% +10.6%
≤30d 2 +25.1% +13.2% 50% 50% +10.6%
≤90d 61 -10.8% -19.3% 70% 31% -11.3%
all 61 -10.8% -19.3% 70% 31% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 31% -11.3%
10% -27.0% 21% -19.8%
15% -34.0% 16% -27.5%
20% -40.5% 7% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$646) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$188 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized+$287
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses43 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage69d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 58¢ $284 $395 +$111 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $699 −$345 -49%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $646 +$643 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 21 $37 −$37 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 21 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 13 $59 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 13 $54 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 13 $47 +$7 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 13 $32 +$15 +48%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 12 $65 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 12 $65 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 12 $47 +$17 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 12 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 12 $290 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 12 $275 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 12 $272 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 12 $165 +$107 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 12 $150 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 12 $493 −$170 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 12 $305 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 12 $299 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 12 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 12 $1,780 −$1,614 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 12 $1,000 +$31 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 12 $1,802 +$147 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 12 $130 +$31 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 12 $1,702 +$69 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 12 $1,675 +$26 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 12 $1,288 +$131 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 12 $200 +$56 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 12 $200 +$246 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 12 $1,161 +$80 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 12 $1,110 +$51 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 12 $1,101 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 12 $100 +$78 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 12 $1,029 +$72 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 12 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 12 $926 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 12 $925 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 12 $902 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 12 $712 +$291 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 12 $623 +$90 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 12 $571 +$52 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 12 $470 +$102 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $289 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $280 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $74 1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,289 2h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $646 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $697 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $37 59d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $59 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $59 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $54 67d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 67d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $47 67d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $32 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $65 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $65 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $65 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $65 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $27 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $47 68d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 68d
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $100 68d
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $100 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $100 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $290 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.10 · official $395.10 (match) · 154 history records