Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d07…b160
politics · 144 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$39 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$44 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage124d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 143 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Raptors vs. Rockets Raptors 36¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Nets vs. Heat Nets 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Raptors Raptors 43¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Kings Pacers 42¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $279 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $208 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $193 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $249 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 18 $268 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $488 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $474 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $243 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $223 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $262 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $272 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $229 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $209 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $261 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $270 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $385 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $258 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $262 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $233 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $229 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 01 $234 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $256 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $208 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $203 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $410 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $223 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $234 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $222 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% −$15
politics 38% −$19
sports 9% −$7
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 12h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 10d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $197 15d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 17d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 19d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 19d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $193 19d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $193 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $215 21d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $215 22d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $259 23d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $259 24d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $249 24d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $249 25d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $220 25d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $220 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $209 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $209 27d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio SELL No 100¢ $268 27d
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio BUY No 100¢ $268 27d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $250 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 114 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 143 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 438 history records