Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:00:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d07…2b94
weather · 907 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,236 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,188 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,726
Realized−$6,188
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses520 / 363
Open positions197
Markets (closed)883 / 907
History coverage6d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day502.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 197 History 883 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,096
7 days−$6,188
14 days−$6,188
30 days−$6,188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? No 85¢ 100¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? No 65¢ 94¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? No 66¢ 78¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? No 85¢ 98¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 86¢ 96¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? No 84¢ 94¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 90¢ 100¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 14? No 90¢ 99¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? No 87¢ 96¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 86¢ 94¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 68¢ 74¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 92¢ 99¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? No 83¢ 89¢ $20 $21 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? No 92¢ 98¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? No 94¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? No 94¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? No 95¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? No 96¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? No 93¢ 96¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 13? No 97¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? No 91¢ 94¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? No 95¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 2? Jun 13 $2 −$3 -122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$69 -823%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 1? Jun 13 $1 −$19 -1313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 1? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$96 -1123%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 63% +$110
crypto 37% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2 4m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2 4m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2 4m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $4 4m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $16 32m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $5 33m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $14 47m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 88¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 87¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 87¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 93¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 883 -19.7% -27.3% 59% 5% -26.4%
≤30d 883 -19.7% -27.3% 59% 5% -26.4%
≤90d 883 -19.7% -27.3% 59% 5% -26.4%
all 883 -19.7% -27.3% 59% 5% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover502.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 5% -26.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 4% -33.5%
15% -40.6% 3% -39.9%
20% -46.5% 2% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,726.08 · official $3,725.37 (match) · 3500 history records