Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:41:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4D 0x4d07…ccdc other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$378 (+6%) realized +$269 · open +$109
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$377
14 days+$338
30 days+$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$637
sports 19% +$1,072
crypto 1% +$16
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -43.0% -48.4% 27% 23% -25.7%
≤30d 35 +32.0% +19.4% 34% 29% -4.1%
≤90d 35 +32.0% +19.4% 34% 29% -4.1%
all 35 +32.0% +19.4% 34% 29% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.4% 29% -4.1%
10% +8.0% 26% -13.2%
15% -2.4% 20% -21.6%
20% -12.0% 17% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +113% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$76 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$269
Unrealized+$109
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage11d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 82¢ $0 $109 +$109 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$5 -45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$12 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 −$45 -64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $55 +$16 +29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 −$12 -20%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $404 +$230 +57%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$239 +234%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $212 −$9 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $253 +$14 +5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $248 +$33 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$24 -59%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 $0 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $503 −$500 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $903 −$6 -1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$418 +408%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $901 +$45 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $604 +$184 +30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $39 +$720 +1843%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $43 +$47 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $68 +$118 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $89 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 25¢ $26 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $71 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $55 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $49 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $61 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 65¢ $28 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $45 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $634 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $404 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $341 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.92 · official $108.92 (match) · 66 history records