Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:41:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4D 0x4d04…bcc0 crypto 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$258 (+2%) realized +$263 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%79W / 43L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$827
7 days+$953
14 days+$953
30 days+$961
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$1,895
other 12% −$508
sports 8% −$396
world 0% −$6
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +10.9% +0.3% 73% 45% -3.1%
≤30d 89 +17.1% +6.0% 71% 51% -3.6%
≤90d 122 +14.7% +3.8% 65% 48% -3.5%
all 122 +14.7% +3.8% 65% 48% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 48% -3.5%
10% -6.2% 35% -12.7%
15% -15.2% 23% -21.1%
20% -23.6% 14% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$54 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$263
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses79 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage87d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 59¢ 12¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-79%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 66¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $715 +$284 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $147 −$123 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $619 +$454 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $616 +$262 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $406 +$92 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $406 +$98 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $805 −$627 -78%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $802 +$69 +9%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$418 +408%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $403 +$42 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $401 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $400 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $402 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $405 +$82 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $402 +$27 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $405 −$400 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $502 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $294 +$142 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $409 +$180 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $414 +$386 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $406 +$109 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $502 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $404 +$63 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $403 +$37 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $304 +$65 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $354 −$350 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$81 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$45 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $60 +$12 +20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$21 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 27 $51 +$21 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 27 $50 −$1 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 27 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 27 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 27 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $51 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 27 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 26 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 25 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 22 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 22 $26 +$15 +56%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 22 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 22 $77 −$54 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $999 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $715 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $147 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $999 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,073 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $619 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $878 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $616 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $498 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $406 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $504 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $406 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 18¢ $178 10h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL No 91¢ $105 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $805 11h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 11h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY No 87¢ $100 11h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $202 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $871 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $802 14h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $521 17h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 18h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 41¢ $58 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $445 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $403 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $417 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $401 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $400 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.52 · official $1.52 (match) · 267 history records