Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:50:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4D 0x4d02…2951 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$155 (+15%) realized +$155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate100%11W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$150
other 12% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 3 +3.3% -6.6% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤90d 6 +5.8% -4.3% 100% 17% -4.9%
all 11 +15.3% +4.3% 100% 27% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.3% 27% +3.9%
10% -5.7% 9% -6.0%
15% -14.8% 9% -15.1%
20% -23.1% 9% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses11 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage115d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May? May 18 $66 +$6 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 27? Apr 29 $65 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 14? Apr 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 13 $52 +$11 +22%
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 07 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 05 $40 +$8 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25? Feb 24 $227 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $224 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5AM ET Feb 22 $112 +$112 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $73 30m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 29d
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in May? BUY Yes 91¢ $66 43d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 27? BUY Yes 97¢ $65 51d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 82¢ $52 101d
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $48 103d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY No 84¢ $40 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $234 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $227 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $224 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $33 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records