Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:42:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4D
0x4d02…704c
crypto · 789 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$503 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$730 · open −$174
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$106
Realized+$730
Unrealized−$174
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses357 / 428
Open positions4
Markets (closed)785 / 789
History coverage146d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 785 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$543
14 days+$696
30 days+$595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $99 $105 +$6 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 8? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $163 $0 −$163 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $121 $0 −$121 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 8? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on June 8? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 7? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 7? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $129 +$66 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $283 +$115 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $120 +$131 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $67 −$18 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $131 −$33 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $84 +$77 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$15 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $194 −$190 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$62 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $68 +$65 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 −$37 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$4 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 −$34 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $74 +$79 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $66 −$37 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 −$90 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $245 −$175 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$176 +195%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $112 −$108 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$31 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $104 −$49 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $44 −$29 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $84 −$69 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $57 −$19 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 −$18 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $116 −$112 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $193 +$384 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $42 +$54 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $125 −$121 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $105 +$61 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $42 +$87 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $85 +$113 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $63 +$130 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $45 +$94 +209%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $69 −$67 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 −$10 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $90 −$68 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $33 −$26 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $108 −$104 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $104 −$101 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $27 −$26 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $134 −$130 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $143 +$311 +217%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $39 −$38 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $38 −$37 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $194 +$460 +236%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $164 −$110 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $59 −$57 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 59% +$613
crypto 41% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 23m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 30m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 44m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 45m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 54m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 54m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 80¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 80¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 80¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 40¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $271 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $179 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -6.0% -14.9% 35% 35% +0.2%
≤30d 80 -3.2% -12.5% 36% 35% +0.2%
≤90d 380 -11.8% -20.2% 32% 30% -4.6%
all 785 -6.1% -15.1% 45% 44% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 44% -6.2%
10% -23.2% 40% -15.2%
15% -30.6% 18% -23.4%
20% -37.4% 15% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.68 · official $105.69 (match) · 3015 history records