Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4D 0x4d02…2ad3 crypto 1652 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28,822 (-42%) realized −$28,849 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%767W / 868L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$468now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 111d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$4,277
world 1% −$56
other 1% +$21
politics 1% +$122
sports 0% +$43
tech 0% −$4
culture 0% −$42
weather 0% −$53
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +20.0% +8.6% 57% 57% -7.0%
≤30d 70 -43.6% -49.0% 29% 29% -71.6%
≤90d 1015 -8.2% -16.9% 45% 45% -17.8%
all 1635 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 47% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 47% -15.3%
10% -23.3% 47% -23.4%
15% -30.7% 46% -30.8%
20% -37.5% 45% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$44 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$468
Realized−$28,849
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses767 / 868
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1635 / 1652
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1635 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? No 54¢ 84¢ $60 $93 +$33 (+55%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 55¢ 92¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+68%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 50¢ 71¢ $30 $42 +$13 (+43%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 39¢ 52¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+35%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 79¢ 99¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+25%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 83¢ 85¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? No 36¢ 80¢ $13 $28 +$16 (+124%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 42¢ 62¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+48%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 45¢ 95¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+112%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 64¢ 54¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 34¢ 35¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 68¢ 100¢ $14 $21 +$7 (+47%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 40¢ 22¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-45%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 79¢ 14¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-82%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 52¢ 6¢ $45 $5 −$40 (-89%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 34¢ 5¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $21 +$48 +233%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 16 $31 +$32 +106%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $20 +$14 +67%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $60 +$14 +24%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $59 +$50 +85%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 11 $30 +$9 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $30 +$14 +47%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 10 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $31 −$26 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 05 $10 +$10 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 3? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 2? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 2? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $21 +$78 +377%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? Jun 04 $30 +$8 +28%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $18 +$9 +52%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $27 +$27 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 02 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $29 +$6 +21%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $33 +$9 +26%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 01 $45 +$10 +23%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $60 −$59 -100%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $17 −$8 -43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 31 $31 −$26 -86%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 31 $29 −$20 -68%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? May 31 $15 −$13 -83%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? May 31 $15 −$12 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $30 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $31 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 43h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 42¢ $15 47h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $25 2d
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 34¢ $21 2d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 33¢ $26 3d
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima SELL Yes 85¢ $19 4d
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 80¢ $15 5d
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? SELL No 74¢ $26 5d
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 79¢ $15 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $20 7d
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? BUY No 36¢ $26 8d
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 45¢ $20 8d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 92¢ $19 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 10d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 10d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele SELL Yes 54¢ $24 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 6¢ $4 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $16 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 14d
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 15d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 22¢ $21 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 17d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 17d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $50 18d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 38¢ $31 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $468.24 · official $466.39 (match) · 3500 history records