Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4D 0x4d01…1645 politics 257 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25,971 (+11%) realized +$22,996 · open +$2,975
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate58%111W / 80L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$910per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$46,250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$681
7 days+$701
14 days+$818
30 days+$3,966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% +$19,355
world 22% +$5,481
other 19% +$3,634
economics 2% +$91
culture 1% −$810
crypto 0% −$1
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -29.9% -36.6% 29% 10% -7.9%
≤30d 80 -13.4% -21.6% 41% 18% -2.3%
≤90d 176 -5.2% -14.2% 56% 21% -0.1%
all 191 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 23% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 23% +3.6%
10% -19.9% 15% -6.3%
15% ← realistic here -27.6% 13% -15.4%
20% -34.7% 9% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$886) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$87 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.62 per $1 lost it wins $4.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$46,250
Realized+$22,996
Unrealized+$2,975
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses111 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions133
Markets (closed)191 / 257
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$910
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 133 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 70¢ 97¢ $3,641 $5,029 +$1,388 (+38%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,830 $3,915 +$86 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $3,142 $3,303 +$160 (+5%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $2,561 $2,622 +$61 (+2%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 83¢ 98¢ $1,933 $2,299 +$366 (+19%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $2,122 $2,253 +$131 (+6%)
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $2,220 $2,233 +$13 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $1,000 $1,595 +$595 (+60%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 79¢ 99¢ $971 $1,215 +$244 (+25%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,010 $1,013 +$3 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $778 $875 +$97 (+12%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $794 $797 +$4 (+0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 91¢ 100¢ $637 $698 +$60 (+9%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 25¢ $852 $653 −$199 (-23%)
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $621 $652 +$31 (+5%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 82¢ 84¢ $620 $633 +$13 (+2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 55¢ $471 $629 +$158 (+34%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $581 $570 −$11 (-2%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $565 $566 +$0 (+0%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $78 $527 +$449 (+575%)
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $492 $525 +$33 (+7%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $572 $509 −$63 (-11%)
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $466 $496 +$30 (+7%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $459 $463 +$4 (+1%)
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 92¢ $372 $460 +$88 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Darko Rajakovic win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Billy Donovan win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Willie Green win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Charles Lee win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jamahl Mosley win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Doc Rivers win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jason Kidd win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Inger Støjberg be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 20 Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Tyronn Lue win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chauncey Billups win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ime Udoka win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mark Daignault win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Erik Spoelstra win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Martin Lidegaard be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Quin Snyder win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will David Adelman win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jordi Fernandez win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pelle Dragsted be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 20 Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Chris Finch win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mike Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brian Keefe win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2 Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Morten Messerschmidt be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Steve Kerr win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Will Hardy win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jordan Ott win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will JJ Redick win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pia Olsen Dyhr be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 20 Jun 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Kenny Atkinson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nick Nurse win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mark Daigneault win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rick Carlisle win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Jun 22 $4,851 +$39 +1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $285 −$35 -12%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $3,407 +$198 +6%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $96 +$11 +11%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1,746 +$562 +32%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $1,230 −$224 -18%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $153 +$73 +47%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $4,100 +$208 +5%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $133 +$1 +0%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $124 −$95 -77%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1,181 +$373 +32%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Jun 20 $294 +$5 +2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $366 +$32 +9%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 19 $480 −$370 -77%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 19 $0 +$9 +1808%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 21¢ $5 13m
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 21¢ $16 13m
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 22¢ $11 14m
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 22¢ $4 18m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 22¢ $7 18m
Will Torsten Bell be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 23¢ $2 34m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 23¢ $7 34m
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 3h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 96¢ $108 3h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 96¢ $145 3h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 96¢ $33 3h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 46¢ $0 4h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 46¢ $27 4h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 50¢ $9 4h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK BUY Yes 3¢ $12 4h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 50¢ $30 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,250.02 · official $46,250.68 (match) · 3500 history records