Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4cff…ce54 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-7%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$75
other 24% +$139
crypto 3% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 53% -7.3%
≤30d 32 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 53% -7.3%
≤90d 32 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 53% -7.3%
all 32 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 53% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 53% -7.3%
10% -15.1% 53% -16.2%
15% -23.3% 50% -24.3%
20% -30.8% 31% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$34 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $36 +$45 +126%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $35 +$58 +167%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$43 +42%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$10 +41%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $112 −$110 -99%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$13 +50%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$35 +69%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$13 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$60 +119%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $76 −$74 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $57 +$18 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $22 +$62 +276%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $35 +$22 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $41 +$46 +114%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $30 +$36 +118%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$30 +60%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $17 +$19 +112%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 12 $18 −$1 -6%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $26 +$11 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $41 −$18 -44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $56 +$20 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 90¢ $93 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $143 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $36 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $35 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $51 12h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $86 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $107 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $4 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $36 27h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 27h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $51 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $25 38h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $25 38h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $25 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 38h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $76 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $76 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $57 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $40 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $56 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $25 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $35 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $35 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $22 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records