Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cfe…5e2f world 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,883 (-6%) realized −$8,888 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate54%38W / 33L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,776per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2,063now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days+$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$713
politics 26% −$7,356
economics 9% −$7,333
other 9% +$2,189
tech 7% +$2,831
crypto 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 2 +4.4% -5.5% 50% 50% +0.8%
≤90d 7 -4.8% -13.9% 57% 43% -7.6%
all 71 -0.8% -10.2% 54% 37% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 37% -15.6%
10% -18.8% 17% -23.6%
15% -26.7% 14% -31.0%
20% -33.9% 8% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,448) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$412 vs −$747 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$2,063
Realized−$8,888
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses38 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)71 / 77
History coverage486d
Avg bet$1,776
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $882 $1,015 +$132 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $825 $662 −$162 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $264 $254 −$10 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $118 +$38 (+47%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $13 +$7 (+125%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $220 −$8 -4%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $3,099 +$386 +12%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2,935 +$463 +16%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 13 $1,674 +$1,052 +63%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $259 +$23 +9%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 25 $927 −$345 -37%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 25 $1,448 −$1,342 -93%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Feb 27 $153 +$7 +5%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 17 $740 +$115 +16%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 09 $198 +$17 +9%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 06 $308 +$270 +88%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $1,065 +$435 +41%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Jan 30 $217 −$11 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 22 $530 +$141 +27%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jan 20 $319 −$26 -8%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Jan 19 $300 +$121 +40%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 13 $155 −$40 -26%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Jan 13 $196 −$49 -25%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $188 −$61 -32%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 13 $445 +$4 +1%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? Jan 10 $100 +$13 +13%
Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31? Jan 10 $100 +$11 +11%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? May 23 $136 +$38 +28%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? May 23 $4 $0 -1%
Israel military action against Iran before July? May 23 $1 $0 +16%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? May 23 $1 $0 +18%
US recession in 2025? May 23 $524 −$239 -46%
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025? May 01 $5,625 −$4,341 -77%
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025? May 01 $3,273 −$3,273 -100%
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 2% and 1% in Q1 2025? Apr 30 $1,252 +$208 +17%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 16 $1,289 +$246 +19%
Will U.S. GDP growth be greater than 2% in Q1 2025? Apr 16 $263 +$4 +2%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? Apr 14 $106 +$24 +22%
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025? Apr 11 $1,784 +$308 +17%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 4? Apr 09 $166 +$362 +218%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 08 $7,457 +$2,780 +37%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Apr 08 $20,810 −$3,310 -16%
Will 3-4 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 04 $665 −$272 -41%
Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 04 $336 −$133 -40%
Will 5-6 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 04 $4,176 −$4,176 -100%
Will 7-8 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 04 $1,498 +$69 +5%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Apr 03 $24 +$16 +67%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Apr 02 $937 −$55 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Apr 02 $105 −$9 -8%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 02 $1,998 +$17 +1%
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days? Apr 02 $4,016 +$65 +2%
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1? Apr 01 $171 +$34 +20%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 31 $31,444 +$5,404 +17%
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July? Mar 25 $17,759 −$4,994 -28%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 04 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $213 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $158 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $106 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $220 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $209 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $238 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $413 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $846 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 27d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $150 28d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3,099 30d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $203 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $345 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $591 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $102 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $5 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $77 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $500 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $77 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $25 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $79 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $4 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $1 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $10 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $5 33d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $77 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,062.84 · official $2,062.84 (match) · 924 history records