Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4cfd…3d84 other 1119 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,113 (-7%) realized −$1,109 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%291W / 813L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$619
7 days−$551
14 days−$825
30 days−$787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$799
sports 32% −$781
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -2.9% -12.1% 19% 18% -29.7%
≤30d 433 -18.4% -26.2% 24% 24% -19.1%
≤90d 1104 -17.4% -25.3% 26% 26% -19.1%
all 1104 -17.4% -25.3% 26% 26% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 26% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 26% -26.8%
15% -39.0% 25% -33.9%
20% -44.9% 25% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$12 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$1,109
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses291 / 813
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1104 / 1119
History coverage50d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 100¢ $25 $114 +$89 (+354%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 100¢ $25 $71 +$46 (+186%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
New Zealand leading at halftime? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
New Zealand to win the second half? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $26 +$167 +650%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $10 +$104 +1012%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $21 +$161 +785%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$64 +250%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$61 +238%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
SC Recife leading at halftime? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
AA Ponte Preta leading at halftime? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will CD Concepción vs. CD Limache end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
São Bernardo FC leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 58m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
New Zealand to win the second half? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 1h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 3h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 3h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $25 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $51 5h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 13¢ $10 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 9¢ $21 8h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY 23¢ $26 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY 22¢ $36 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 15h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 35¢ $25 15h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 16¢ $20 15h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $25 15h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $14 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $20 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.60 · official $269.60 (match) · 2547 history records