Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:49:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cfb…14d8 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+4%) realized +$38 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 25% -38.3%
≤30d 4 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 25% -38.3%
≤90d 4 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 25% -38.3%
all 4 -26.3% -33.3% 50% 25% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 25% -38.3%
10% -39.7% 25% -44.2%
15% -45.5% 25% -49.6%
20% -50.9% 25% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 49¢ 100¢ $30 $62 +$31 (+103%)
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics PortlandFire 60¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $32 −$31 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $63 +$4 +6%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $0 $0 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 21¢ $4 40m
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY PortlandFire 60¢ $32 1h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $31 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ $32 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ $67 24h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $63 24h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $0 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.08 · official $61.65 (match) · 7 history records