Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:00:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4cfb…3990
crypto · 429 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$48 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$43 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$264
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses295 / 115
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)410 / 429
History coverage67d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 19 History 410 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$155
14 days+$86
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 12? Up 97¢ 94¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 12? Up 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on June 12? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 12? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 12? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 12? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 12? Down 90¢ 48¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 50¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 50¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Yes 80¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will anyone say "Suck" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Yes 87¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Yes 81¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 18? Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? No 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 11? No 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $705 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $48 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $77 +$2 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $39 +$2 +6%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $29 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$9 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $33 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $75 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 -5%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Is Earth flat? Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $56 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 34% +$63
other 32% −$34
world 12% +$18
finance 11% +$8
tech 7% −$1
politics 4% −$2
sports 0% −$2
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 59m
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $705 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 12? SELL No 90¢ $5 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +0.3% -9.2% 65% 20% -1.9%
≤30d 293 -1.6% -11.0% 72% 23% -8.9%
≤90d 410 -3.9% -13.1% 72% 22% -8.4%
all 410 -3.9% -13.1% 72% 22% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 22% -8.4%
10% -21.4% 11% -17.2%
15% -29.0% 5% -25.2%
20% -35.9% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.75 · official $263.75 (match) · 1106 history records