Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4cfa…de43 crypto 818 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$249 (-1%) realized −$249 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%406W / 777L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 465 -85.0% -86.4% 8% 8% -73.1%
≤30d 545 -69.8% -72.7% 16% 16% -56.3%
≤90d 1183 -35.5% -41.6% 34% 34% -33.9%
all 1183 -35.5% -41.6% 34% 34% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.6% 34% -33.9%
10% ← realistic here -47.2% 34% -40.3%
15% -52.3% 34% -46.0%
20% -57.0% 34% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$45 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses406 / 777
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1183 / 818
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1183 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12AM ET Jun 21 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $44 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $9 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records