Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cf7…4b3a sports 197 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$214 (-1%) realized +$17 · open −$231
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%92W / 104L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$463est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days−$163
14 days−$143
30 days+$2,398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$664
other 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +18.5% +7.2% 56% 50% -12.8%
≤30d 77 +31.2% +18.7% 57% 55% +2.8%
≤90d 175 +5.4% -4.6% 47% 46% -12.8%
all 196 +5.1% -4.9% 47% 45% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 45% -10.6%
10% -14.0% 42% -19.2%
15% -22.3% 37% -27.0%
20% -29.9% 34% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$153 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$231
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses92 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$463
Open positions1
Markets (closed)196 / 197
History coverage98d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 40¢ 0¢ $232 $0 −$231 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $171 +$116 +68%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $581 +$144 +25%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $216 −$216 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $410 −$410 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $234 −$234 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $126 +$137 +109%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,495 +$299 +20%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $28 +$86 +307%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $108 +$145 +134%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $18 +$19 +108%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $115 +$255 +222%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $81 −$81 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $529 +$15 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $146 −$144 -99%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$94 +188%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $96 +$637 +663%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $22 +$128 +567%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $193 +$289 +150%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $131 −$131 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $64 +$142 +223%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $317 −$317 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $123 −$120 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 11 $32 +$19 +59%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $34 −$34 -99%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 08 $13 +$27 +197%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Sta Jun 08 $53 −$51 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $152 +$209 +137%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $169 −$169 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $81 +$73 +91%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 07 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 07 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $91 −$91 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $315 −$315 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $448 +$387 +86%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $224 −$224 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $60 +$32 +54%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $172 −$172 -100%
Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 04 $208 −$208 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $66 +$156 +238%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $94 +$159 +169%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $224 +$476 +212%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $144 −$144 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $236 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 28¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $169 8h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $190 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $80 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $18 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $62 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 80¢ $171 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 35¢ $138 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 35¢ $0 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 35¢ $0 4d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 35¢ $56 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $38 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $62 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 53¢ $216 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $33 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $139 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $14 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.29 (match) · 759 history records