Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

4C 0x4cf5…fb8d other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$15 (+11%) realized +$15 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%4W / 4L

Drawdown90%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day4.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-2.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+7.7%	-2.5%	50%	50%	+8.7%
≤30d	8	+7.7%	-2.5%	50%	50%	+8.7%
≤90d	8	+7.7%	-2.5%	50%	50%	+8.7%
all	8	+7.7%	-2.5%	50%	50%	+8.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.5%	50%	+8.7%
10%	-11.9%	50%	-1.7%
15%	-20.4%	50%	-11.2%
20%	-28.2%	50%	-19.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 70% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$15

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses4 / 4

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)8 / 10

History coverage3d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day4.7

Drawdown90%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 8 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$10	+$8	+79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$9	+93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$12	+234%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$51	+$28	+55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	79¢	$18	1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$10	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$20	22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	99¢	$17	25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	27h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY	37¢	$17	41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$5	46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	99¢	$79	47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$10	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	31¢	$10	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND	BUY	9¢	$5	2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records