Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:21:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cf3…6231 crypto 264 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$33 (+0%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%144W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$652
7 days−$602
14 days−$205
30 days−$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -22.5% -29.9% 46% 46% -28.7%
≤30d 85 -6.8% -15.7% 54% 54% -13.6%
≤90d 97 -12.3% -20.7% 52% 52% -14.6%
all 264 -10.9% -19.4% 55% 53% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 53% -10.1%
10% -27.1% 48% -18.7%
15% -34.1% 42% -26.6%
20% -40.6% 34% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$42 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses144 / 120
Open positions0
Markets (closed)264 / 264
History coverage119d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 264 Trades
no open positions (113 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$69 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$53 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$73 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$58 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$120 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $103 +$66 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 08 $103 +$96 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 08 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$118 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 07 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $103 +$94 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 06 $103 +$90 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 05 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 05 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $103 +$71 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $103 +$69 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 05 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $103 +$84 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $64 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $39 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $29 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $74 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 725 history records