Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4C 0x4cf2…df98 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$64 (+25%) realized +$26 · open +$38

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip

Net edge+20%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day22.0pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit46%portable

Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+41.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+56.1%	+41.2%	100%	100%	+32.4%
≤30d	2	+56.1%	+41.2%	100%	100%	+32.4%
≤90d	2	+56.1%	+41.2%	100%	100%	+32.4%
all	2	+56.1%	+41.2%	100%	100%	+32.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover22.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+41.2%	100%	+32.4%
10% ← realistic here	+27.7%	100%	+19.8%
15%	+15.4%	50%	+8.2%
20%	+4.1%	50%	-2.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +56% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$237

Realized+$26

Unrealized+$38

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions11

Markets (closed)2 / 13

History coverage1d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day22.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 11 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner	MOUZ	26¢	66¢	$42	$105	+$63 (+151%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs	MOUZ	58¢	46¢	$50	$40	−$10 (-21%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Inner Circle	39¢	22¢	$26	$15	−$11 (-42%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	44¢	44¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	67¢	68¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	50¢	50¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang	Iva Jovic	73¢	50¢	$10	$7	−$3 (-31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed	Jun 22	$10	+$3	+27%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider	Jun 22	$5	+$4	+85%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl	BUY Inner Circle	39¢	$27	13m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl	SELL Virtus.pro	58¢	$27	14m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl	BUY Virtus.pro	65¢	$22	26m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed	SELL OG	75¢	$13	1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider	SELL Clara Tauson	65¢	$9	1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner	BUY MOUZ	26¢	$43	1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos	BUY MOUZ	47¢	$20	2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos	BUY MOUZ	67¢	$20	2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos	SELL Yellow Submarine	33¢	$12	2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos	BUY Yellow Submarine	28¢	$10	2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl	BUY Virtus.pro	78¢	$10	3h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed	BUY OG	58¢	$10	3h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos	BUY MOUZ	70¢	$10	3h
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang	BUY Iva Jovic	73¢	$10	3h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider	BUY Clara Tauson	34¢	$5	3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$10	3h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	50¢	$10	4h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	65¢	$10	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.