Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:53:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4C 0x4ceb…b424 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$224 (-22%) realized +$88 · open −$311
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.8% +8.4% 67% 67% +10.0%
≤30d 3 +19.8% +8.4% 67% 67% +10.0%
≤90d 3 +19.8% +8.4% 67% 67% +10.0%
all 3 +19.8% +8.4% 67% 67% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.4% 67% +10.0%
10% -1.9% 67% -0.5%
15% -11.4% 33% -10.1%
20% -20.1% 33% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$100 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$311
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 23¢ 22¢ $205 $193 −$12 (-6%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne Katy Dunne 13¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Aleksandar Kovacevic 31¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $206 −$100 -48%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $204 +$49 +24%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova Jun 23 $102 +$139 +136%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 16m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $205 16m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 31¢ $204 29m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne BUY Katy Dunne 13¢ $103 46m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 23¢ $102 50m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart SELL Zeynep Sonmez 79¢ $316 52m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 23¢ $59 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 29¢ $44 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova SELL Anastasia Gasanova 28¢ $54 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Anastasia Gasanova 51¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova SELL Anastasia Gasanova 42¢ $199 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova BUY Anastasia Gasanova 21¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova SELL Darja Semenistaja 49¢ $241 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Anna Siskova BUY Darja Semenistaja 20¢ $102 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.47 · official $193.47 (match) · 14 history records