Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4ceb…69f0 world 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%24W / 45L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$30
politics 21% $0
other 18% $0
sports 12% −$12
economics 2% $0
finance 1% +$4
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.3% -1.2% 29% 29% -3.7%
≤30d 20 +3.7% -6.2% 45% 15% -6.4%
≤90d 68 +0.5% -9.1% 35% 4% -8.4%
all 69 -0.9% -10.4% 35% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -8.8%
10% -18.9% 3% -17.5%
15% -26.8% 1% -25.5%
20% -34.0% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses24 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage484d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $49 +$25 +51%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $231 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $1 $0 +9%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $76 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $159 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $88 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 27 $45 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $16 +$4 +24%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $22 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $67 +$4 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $36 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $37 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $77 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $44 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $121 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $77 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $132 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1 $0 -17%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $1 $0 -14%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $74 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $74 $0 -0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $15 59m
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $35 59m
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 99¢ $74 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $49 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $25 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $25 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $37 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $48 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $30 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $18 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $48 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $28 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $28 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.56 · official $0.00 (match) · 276 history records