Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4ceb…e818 crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized −$3 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$37
sports 8% −$17
other 8% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -31.5% -38.0% 22% 22% -3.4%
≤30d 9 -31.5% -38.0% 22% 22% -3.4%
≤90d 9 -31.5% -38.0% 22% 22% -3.4%
all 9 -31.5% -38.0% 22% 22% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.0% 22% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -44.0% 22% -12.6%
15% -49.4% 22% -21.1%
20% -54.3% 22% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$25 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Yes 29¢ 42¢ $25 $36 +$11 (+45%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$120 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$72 +137%
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -89%
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? Jun 17 $21 −$13 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 1h
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 2h
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 2h
Will Trump say "White House" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.42 · official $48.13 · 23 history records