Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4ce6…0eef other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+4%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$40
world 35% +$6
politics 11% $0
sports 5% −$1
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -1.5% -10.9% 40% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 5 -1.5% -10.9% 40% 0% -8.3%
all 34 +7.3% -2.9% 29% 6% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 6% -5.3%
10% -12.2% 6% -14.4%
15% -20.7% 3% -22.6%
20% -28.5% 3% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×20.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.26 per $1 lost it wins $23.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage266d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $67 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2 $0 -10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $192 +$5 +3%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 23 $3 $0 -6%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $11 +$2 +24%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $14 +$38 +270%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 26 $28 $0 -1%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $10 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 28 $28 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $2 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 20 Sep 28 $25 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $45 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $45 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $36 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $19 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 34h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 87¢ $2 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 75¢ $66 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $68 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $60 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $9 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $63 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $28 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 71¢ $35 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 68¢ $1 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 68¢ $60 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $38 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $38 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.56 · official $67.56 (match) · 156 history records