Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4C 0x4ce5…309c sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$97 (+19%) realized +$111 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$102
other 35% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +28.3% +16.1% 67% 67% +31.0%
≤30d 8 +18.8% +7.5% 62% 62% +12.5%
≤90d 8 +18.8% +7.5% 62% 62% +12.5%
all 8 +18.8% +7.5% 62% 62% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 62% +12.5%
10% -2.8% 62% +1.8%
15% -12.2% 62% -8.1%
20% -20.8% 62% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$57 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$111
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage22d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 51¢ 48¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA 24¢ 6¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $30 +$24 +79%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$101 +166%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $46 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $26 +$14 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $57 +$41 +73%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $132 +$106 +81%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 14¢ $5 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 33¢ $12 49m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $54 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 15¢ $5 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 20h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $26 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $40 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $40 21h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $26 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $57 23h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $238 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $132 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.93 · official $22.98 · 19 history records