Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4ce3…5502 crypto 88 markets active 17h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-18%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%34W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$11
14 days−$16
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +57.4% +42.4% 62% 62% +42.2%
≤30d 88 -26.4% -33.4% 39% 33% -28.7%
≤90d 88 -26.4% -33.4% 39% 33% -28.7%
all 88 -26.4% -33.4% 39% 33% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 33% -28.7%
10% -39.8% 26% -35.5%
15% -45.6% 25% -41.7%
20% -50.9% 22% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses34 / 54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage21d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +115%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$8 +312%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$2 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 28 $5 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 28 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 28 $4 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 28 $3 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 27 $4 −$3 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 27 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 27 $7 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 27 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 27 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 27 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 27 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 27 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 27 $6 +$6 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 219 history records