Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4ce0…7e74 world 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$66 (+2%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate50%32W / 32L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$5
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$26
other 19% +$59
politics 13% −$1
sports 4% −$35
finance 4% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 22 -1.4% -10.8% 36% 14% -6.9%
≤90d 26 -1.6% -11.0% 31% 12% -8.1%
all 64 +16.1% +5.0% 50% 19% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 19% -7.5%
10% -5.0% 12% -16.4%
15% -14.2% 8% -24.5%
20% -22.6% 5% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses32 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage543d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $75 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $79 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $59 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $78 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $19 −$3 -18%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $137 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $81 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $2 $0 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $74 +$30 +40%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $103 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $46 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $61 +$3 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $39 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $238 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $239 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will Rubén Costas win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Dec 07 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Napoli win the Serie A? May 24 $59 −$6 -10%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on Februar Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025? Mar 20 $6 −$1 -13%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 02 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 02 $1 +$2 +219%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February Feb 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 25? Feb 25 $6 $0 +3%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 23 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4? Feb 20 $42 +$5 +12%
Will Kostas Tasoulas be next Greek President? Feb 10 $4 −$3 -74%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Feb 09 $50 +$1 +2%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Feb 07 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Kai and Speed take 175-199 attempts to beat Fortnite? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kai and Speed take 25-49 attempts to beat Fortnite? Feb 05 $1 +$9 +871%
Devils vs. Penguins Feb 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 05 $121 −$5 -4%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Feb 04 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $78 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $66 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $9 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $33 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $42 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $4 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $66 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $70 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $45 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $14 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $19 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $79 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $45 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $26 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $26 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.03 · official $78.21 (match) · 251 history records