Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4ce0…a65b other 35 markets active 6h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$79
sports 37% +$58
world 5% −$109
crypto 2% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -24.8% -32.0% 40% 37% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -24.8% -32.0% 40% 37% -9.6%
≤90d 35 -24.8% -32.0% 40% 37% -9.6%
all 35 -24.8% -32.0% 40% 37% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 37% -9.6%
10% -38.5% 37% -18.3%
15% -44.4% 37% -26.2%
20% -49.9% 26% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$37 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage6d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $175 +$91 +52%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$27 -87%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $284 +$191 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $192 +$92 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $110 −$109 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$8 -42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 −$150 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $30 +$35 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $41 +$42 +103%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $172 +$140 +81%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $121 +$48 +40%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $131 +$74 +56%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$18 -60%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $30 +$21 +68%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$16 -53%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $266 5h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 6h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $175 8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $474 8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $284 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $284 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $192 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 32h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 32h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 32h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $61 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 35h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $20 38h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $20 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 42h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $36 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $71 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $313 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $122 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $82 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 96¢ $0 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 96¢ $169 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records