Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cdf…953a world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$9
other 23% +$2
politics 7% +$1
sports 5% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 +43.8% +30.1% 33% 6% -11.1%
≤90d 18 +43.8% +30.1% 33% 6% -11.1%
all 37 +20.5% +9.0% 41% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 8% -10.5%
10% -1.4% 5% -19.1%
15% -11.0% 5% -26.9%
20% -19.7% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage481d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $28 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $33 −$10 -29%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $9 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $22 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $76 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 01 $2 +$1 +50%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 20 $16 $0 +1%
Coppin State vs. Delaware State Mar 03 $13 +$3 +22%
USC vs. Oregon Mar 01 $15 −$3 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $25 10h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 12h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $25 14h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $28 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $27 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $1 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $3 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $24 44h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $13 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $25 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $3 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $21 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 41¢ $33 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.85 · official $30.99 (match) · 120 history records