Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:13:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4cdd…4898 other 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,156 (+10%) realized +$1,337 · open −$181
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%16W / 23L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$1,859now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$1,207
14 days+$1,244
30 days+$1,244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$913
sports 31% +$180
crypto 9% +$12
world 0% −$38
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -46.2% -51.3% 34% 26% +2.4%
≤30d 38 -38.6% -44.4% 39% 29% +2.4%
≤90d 38 -38.6% -44.4% 39% 29% +2.4%
all 39 -37.1% -43.1% 41% 31% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 31% +2.4%
10% -48.5% 26% -7.4%
15% -53.5% 23% -16.3%
20% -58.0% 15% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -86% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$12 · ×7.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.5 per $1 lost it wins $5.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$1,859
Realized+$1,337
Unrealized−$181
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses16 / 23
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage135d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 94¢ 86¢ $2,030 $1,851 −$179 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $403 +$138 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will LA MUDANZA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "DtMF" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Big Game: Coin Toss Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 24 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $92 +$15 +16%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$13 -83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$32 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4,000 +$12 +0%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$146 +286%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,171 +$959 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $990 +$14 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $230 +$18 +8%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$10 +96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Seahawks Team Total: O/U 17.5 Feb 09 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $2,003 1m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $403 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $1,003 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $0 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $7 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $12 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $4 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $12 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $20 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $6 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $4 10h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 10h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $92 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,000 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $197 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,129 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $900 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $2,019 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $90 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $20 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,859.48 · official $1,859.48 (match) · 95 history records