Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4C 0x4cdb…172c crypto 621 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$256 (+1%) realized +$332 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate84%449W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day38.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$211
14 days+$198
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$113
sports 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +0.0% -9.5% 93% 9% -7.0%
≤30d 431 +0.6% -9.0% 82% 9% -9.0%
≤90d 537 +1.2% -8.5% 84% 10% -8.9%
all 537 +1.2% -8.5% 84% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 10% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 1% -17.6%
15% -25.2% 1% -25.6%
20% -32.6% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$6,259
Realized+$332
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses449 / 88
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions84
Markets (closed)537 / 621
History coverage47d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day38.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 84 History 537 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $237 $239 +$2 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $237 $239 +$2 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $234 $238 +$3 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $221 $223 +$2 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $218 $221 +$3 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? No 97¢ 99¢ $217 $219 +$2 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 97¢ 96¢ $221 $218 −$3 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $181 $188 +$7 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $180 $181 +$2 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $175 $178 +$3 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $151 $169 +$18 (+12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $164 $166 +$2 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $153 $164 +$11 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $150 $160 +$10 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 90¢ 95¢ $136 $144 +$8 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 93¢ 97¢ $136 $142 +$6 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? No 86¢ 55¢ $212 $135 −$78 (-37%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 88¢ 77¢ $132 $116 −$16 (-12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? No 97¢ 97¢ $114 $114 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $96 $107 +$10 (+11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? No 85¢ 52¢ $151 $93 −$58 (-39%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $88 $92 +$3 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $88 $90 +$3 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $83 $84 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $76 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $237 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $78 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $223 +$3 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $63 +$37 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$4 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $217 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $80 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $225 +$12 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $236 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $175 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $102 +$6 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $168 +$13 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 11? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $103 +$13 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 11 $31 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $69 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $103 +$11 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $41 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 10? Jun 10 $48 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $162 +$22 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 10? Jun 10 $41 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $108 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 10 $37 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 10m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $35 10m
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 13m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1 13m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $11 33m
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 35m
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 35m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $16 35m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 35m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $31 50m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 50m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $29 57m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 53¢ $92 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $24 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $9 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $12 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 87¢ $12 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $11 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,259.29 · official $6,258.61 (match) · 2243 history records