Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:46:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cda…144d crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$85 (+8%) realized +$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$622
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -23.4% -30.7% 33% 33% -60.0%
≤30d 9 -23.4% -30.7% 33% 33% -60.0%
≤90d 9 -23.4% -30.7% 33% 33% -60.0%
all 9 -23.4% -30.7% 33% 33% -60.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.7% 33% -60.0%
10% ← realistic here -37.3% 33% -63.8%
15% -43.4% 33% -67.3%
20% -48.9% 33% -70.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$117 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $309 −$309 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $9 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $161 −$147 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $312 −$41 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$12 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $259 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $267 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $307 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records