Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cd8…c59c crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$400 (+11%) realized +$400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days+$295
14 days+$328
30 days+$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$401
crypto 34% −$62
other 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -17.7% -25.5% 44% 44% -2.2%
≤30d 39 -11.2% -19.7% 49% 49% -1.5%
≤90d 39 -11.2% -19.7% 49% 49% -1.5%
all 39 -11.2% -19.7% 49% 49% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 49% -1.5%
10% -27.4% 49% -10.9%
15% -34.4% 36% -19.5%
20% -40.8% 26% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$47 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage58d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $314 +$90 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $200 −$93 -46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$4 -13%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $51 +$31 +60%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $51 +$15 +30%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Lee Jaesung: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $620 +$232 +37%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: TYLOO vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Ranking Matc Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 12 $184 −$184 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10AM ET Jun 12 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $850 +$478 +56%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $12 +$19 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $163 +$135 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $77 −$2 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$4 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $51 +$12 +23%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $102 +$94 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $23 +$10 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$9 +34%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $102 +$41 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$6 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$57 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $52 +$25 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $405 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $314 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 1h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 14¢ $7 16h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 14¢ $1 16h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 14¢ $7 16h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 14¢ $30 16h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 14¢ $47 16h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 14¢ $1 16h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 14¢ $3 16h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 14¢ $17 16h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 11¢ $107 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 20¢ $12 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 20¢ $168 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 20¢ $1 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 20¢ $19 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $27 38h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 30¢ $82 38h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 60¢ $66 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 44h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $51 44h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $51 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 3d
Lee Jaesung: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 30¢ $12 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 30¢ $150 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 30¢ $39 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records